Monday, August 18, 2008
Wow. Double Digit Inflation.
I just read an article that was so pessimistic as to suggest double digit inflation as soon as 2009. The author went on to explain that oil, wheat, corn, coal, and copper have increased an average of 300% in the last few years while consumer prices have only increased some 3%. Apparently China is not going to support us forever and will be focusing more on supplying its own population, having eliminated tax incentives for exporting. I'm not so good at math, but isn't 100% per year more than "double digit" inflation? How is that our basic commodities could go up 300 fold and we only experience a 3% retail price increase?
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Emily Dickinson Goes to Her Class Reunion
I'm nobody! Who are you?
Are you nobody, too?
Then there's a pair of us--don't tell!
They'd banish us, you know.
How dreary to be somebody!
How public, like a frog
To tell your name the livelong day
To an admiring bog!
Are you nobody, too?
Then there's a pair of us--don't tell!
They'd banish us, you know.
How dreary to be somebody!
How public, like a frog
To tell your name the livelong day
To an admiring bog!
Thankful for Mercy
This weekend was my twenty year highschool class reunion. What a wave of emotions and memories!
"Stephen, how are you!" Steve's nickname was "beachball" from fifth grade. He remained overweight and often marginalized throughout school, though less so in highschool. A pretty decent guy, though. "Oh..." he's obviously thinking while he's drinking..."I guess I'm okay. Just okay." He tells me about his life, he drives delivery truck and enjoys the freedom of not being a cubicle. I want to hear more about it, and come to know this person I spent 8 years with and never discovered. But someone else comes by, and Steve's attention turns to them, and I move on.
Brian is talking to Marie. I wonder if Brian is still struggling with drugs and alcohol. He was fairly bright in school and good at drama, but there was some trouble at home and his life got pretty crazy after graduation, I heard. Marie was very bright, but silly and flitty. She is moving on after a recent divorce, trying out a new church when her old friends didn't know how to deal with her divorced state. She asks Brian, "So, what do you do?" He is giving her evasive answers--seems to think his job is too complicated for her to understand. She finally convinces him of her interest and he exclaims, "Why Marie, when did you become so literary!" Marie is annoyed: "I'm not just Moe's little sister! I did learn how to read, you know!" I pass by.
I settled with my plate at a table with Lisa. She's looking very pretty with a hair color I don't remember and a dress that definately isn't 80's. "I don't remember reading your bio on the website, " I begin. She says, "Oh, I didn't want to post my litany of relational failures." She's witty and open about two divorces and being a single mom. I throw out a name of a boy from our french class that we both flirted with and teased. She says, "Oh, I lost my virginity to him! I was 14. That was the beginning of the downhill slide." She seems flippant, yet with pain, and I feel like I've been punched. My daughter is 13.
Kim joins us, and I groan inwardly. Kim is a bankruptcy and divorce lawyer. She is extremely bright--I competed with her constantly in school, and I think I mostly came in second to her first in just about everything. She is energetic to the point of frenetic now, and aware enough of others to ask questions but not to listen to the answers. She is a terrible gossip, and always cutting. She, too is divorced, and is ready to throw wood on the pyre of the ex-husband roast. I get up to find some food. Kim is welcome to win this round--and any other round, I don't want to play that game any more.
Cindy is laughing too loud. She finally got away from the abusive older guy that she dated all through highschool, and married Jon, if you can believe that. She looks beautiful, and is telling the same story of giving birth "naturally!" that she was telling at the 10 year reunion. I avoid her.
Finally, I get a chance to settle down with several classmates who are discussing education. Trixie sat next to me in band. I remember her as down to earth, laid back, with a warm sense of humor. Tonight, she is emphatically recounting the struggles with the school district that she has waged to get her children what they need. She's wearing make-up, which she never used to do, and her hair is no longer soft and free. She is strong and articulate, but she says, "I'm tired."
Time changes us. And we can't go back to the time when we didn't carry so much. And so many of these people have been carrying much too much for far too long.
It isn't all a mosaic of pain, of course--some of my classmates have successful international businesses, happy marriages, or lives of service helping people in meaningful ways. But there are so many that seem to be limping along. And I was like them at 16, I was going down the same road as Lisa or Cindy or any of them. That could have been me with the abusive husband or raising my kids alone or hooking up with guy number 26. But God in his huge mercy decided to reach down and fish me out, even though I misunderstood and didn't "do it right" and still after 22 years I'm trying to grasp his love! I feel like I've had a glimpse of my life then--the twisting pangs to belong, but being awkward in my own skin. And I've had a glimpse of where I was going when God interrupted me, and I'm so thankful. I'm not worthy of what I've received, but I'm so thankful.
"Stephen, how are you!" Steve's nickname was "beachball" from fifth grade. He remained overweight and often marginalized throughout school, though less so in highschool. A pretty decent guy, though. "Oh..." he's obviously thinking while he's drinking..."I guess I'm okay. Just okay." He tells me about his life, he drives delivery truck and enjoys the freedom of not being a cubicle. I want to hear more about it, and come to know this person I spent 8 years with and never discovered. But someone else comes by, and Steve's attention turns to them, and I move on.
Brian is talking to Marie. I wonder if Brian is still struggling with drugs and alcohol. He was fairly bright in school and good at drama, but there was some trouble at home and his life got pretty crazy after graduation, I heard. Marie was very bright, but silly and flitty. She is moving on after a recent divorce, trying out a new church when her old friends didn't know how to deal with her divorced state. She asks Brian, "So, what do you do?" He is giving her evasive answers--seems to think his job is too complicated for her to understand. She finally convinces him of her interest and he exclaims, "Why Marie, when did you become so literary!" Marie is annoyed: "I'm not just Moe's little sister! I did learn how to read, you know!" I pass by.
I settled with my plate at a table with Lisa. She's looking very pretty with a hair color I don't remember and a dress that definately isn't 80's. "I don't remember reading your bio on the website, " I begin. She says, "Oh, I didn't want to post my litany of relational failures." She's witty and open about two divorces and being a single mom. I throw out a name of a boy from our french class that we both flirted with and teased. She says, "Oh, I lost my virginity to him! I was 14. That was the beginning of the downhill slide." She seems flippant, yet with pain, and I feel like I've been punched. My daughter is 13.
Kim joins us, and I groan inwardly. Kim is a bankruptcy and divorce lawyer. She is extremely bright--I competed with her constantly in school, and I think I mostly came in second to her first in just about everything. She is energetic to the point of frenetic now, and aware enough of others to ask questions but not to listen to the answers. She is a terrible gossip, and always cutting. She, too is divorced, and is ready to throw wood on the pyre of the ex-husband roast. I get up to find some food. Kim is welcome to win this round--and any other round, I don't want to play that game any more.
Cindy is laughing too loud. She finally got away from the abusive older guy that she dated all through highschool, and married Jon, if you can believe that. She looks beautiful, and is telling the same story of giving birth "naturally!" that she was telling at the 10 year reunion. I avoid her.
Finally, I get a chance to settle down with several classmates who are discussing education. Trixie sat next to me in band. I remember her as down to earth, laid back, with a warm sense of humor. Tonight, she is emphatically recounting the struggles with the school district that she has waged to get her children what they need. She's wearing make-up, which she never used to do, and her hair is no longer soft and free. She is strong and articulate, but she says, "I'm tired."
Time changes us. And we can't go back to the time when we didn't carry so much. And so many of these people have been carrying much too much for far too long.
It isn't all a mosaic of pain, of course--some of my classmates have successful international businesses, happy marriages, or lives of service helping people in meaningful ways. But there are so many that seem to be limping along. And I was like them at 16, I was going down the same road as Lisa or Cindy or any of them. That could have been me with the abusive husband or raising my kids alone or hooking up with guy number 26. But God in his huge mercy decided to reach down and fish me out, even though I misunderstood and didn't "do it right" and still after 22 years I'm trying to grasp his love! I feel like I've had a glimpse of my life then--the twisting pangs to belong, but being awkward in my own skin. And I've had a glimpse of where I was going when God interrupted me, and I'm so thankful. I'm not worthy of what I've received, but I'm so thankful.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Follow the Money
Once upon a time, our currency was backed with gold. You could take a $20 gold piece to the bank and trade it for paper money valued $20, or vice versa. Then in 1933, our president sent out an order that Americans were to turn in all their gold and be paid for it in paper money. An ounce of gold would no longer be $20, but would move with the market. However, other governments could still trade in their dollars for gold, and did. America became very prosperous, and imported many foreign items, and paid for them in dollars. The foreign governments took advantage of the ability to trade these dollars for American gold, until the 1970s when our government began to fear that American gold reserves would be depleted and told them they could not trade dollars for gold. Which was a good thing because America imports much more than they export.
So why did other countries continue to use dollars when the value of them fluctuated against the value of gold? In short, other countries had to have dollars because all oil on the planet is bought and sold in U.S. dollars. Only a fraction of U.S. dollars in print are physically in the U.S. right now. Many billions of dollars are abroad, participating in foreign trade.
But the U.S. financial position is weakening. The oil trade will ultimately move away from using dollars exclusively. And when those dollars come home to roost, guess what that will do to prices in the U.S.? Have you ever seen pictures of post WWI Germany with the people carrying wheelbarrows of cash to go buy bread? Or wallpapering their bathroom with money because it was cheaper than wallpaper?
So why did other countries continue to use dollars when the value of them fluctuated against the value of gold? In short, other countries had to have dollars because all oil on the planet is bought and sold in U.S. dollars. Only a fraction of U.S. dollars in print are physically in the U.S. right now. Many billions of dollars are abroad, participating in foreign trade.
But the U.S. financial position is weakening. The oil trade will ultimately move away from using dollars exclusively. And when those dollars come home to roost, guess what that will do to prices in the U.S.? Have you ever seen pictures of post WWI Germany with the people carrying wheelbarrows of cash to go buy bread? Or wallpapering their bathroom with money because it was cheaper than wallpaper?
Inflation
Inflation comes from an excess of money. Imagine an island with five people living on it. They have 100 gold pieces. If one person kills a wild boar, a share of the boar is one gold piece. If someone helps you build your hut, you pay them one gold piece per day. But then, someone discovers gold on the island. Suddenly, there is 1000 gold pieces on the island, not just 100. That same piece of boar's meat is now going to be 1/100 of the new money supply, or 11 gold pieces. Of course, if the weather is terrible, you might be willing to pay a greater portion of available funds for shelter, and if you just filled up on fruit you might be unwilling to pay for meat. But all things being equal, you will pay a certain portion of what you have for your needs, and if the people have more money they will spend more money and prices will go up.
But we aren't on an island, and we don't keep discovering more gold. Our money comes from the government controlled banking system. This central banking system loans money to banks at a set interest rate. The banks mark up that interest rate so they can make a profit, and make loans to businesses and individuals who, in turn, buy things with it or invest it. If the central bank lowers interest rates, money seems cheap to borrow and people respond by taking out loans and putting money to work in our economy. However, this increases the amount of money in circulation and drives up prices.
Question: why would our government take actions like, say, sending free money to everyone, when it will drive up prices? Answer: because America is wretchedly in debt. If we took everything everyone on the planet produced for two years, we might be able to just pay off what we owe. Do you think the whole planet would mind donating their productivity? No? Well, then, let's make our money as worthless as possible. Inflation means that we can pay back our debts with dollars that are worth less than the dollars we borrowed.
Let's say I borrow $1000 to buy a cow and that cows cost $1000. Then, let's print more money so that the value of the cow is now $1500 (the value of cows being one billionth of the total money supply). I can now sell that cow and give you back your $1000 and pay you back--with 3% interest--and you still won't have enough to buy a cow any more. Inflating your currency is a way of getting out of returning borrowed value. Stealing, in a word.
But we aren't on an island, and we don't keep discovering more gold. Our money comes from the government controlled banking system. This central banking system loans money to banks at a set interest rate. The banks mark up that interest rate so they can make a profit, and make loans to businesses and individuals who, in turn, buy things with it or invest it. If the central bank lowers interest rates, money seems cheap to borrow and people respond by taking out loans and putting money to work in our economy. However, this increases the amount of money in circulation and drives up prices.
Question: why would our government take actions like, say, sending free money to everyone, when it will drive up prices? Answer: because America is wretchedly in debt. If we took everything everyone on the planet produced for two years, we might be able to just pay off what we owe. Do you think the whole planet would mind donating their productivity? No? Well, then, let's make our money as worthless as possible. Inflation means that we can pay back our debts with dollars that are worth less than the dollars we borrowed.
Let's say I borrow $1000 to buy a cow and that cows cost $1000. Then, let's print more money so that the value of the cow is now $1500 (the value of cows being one billionth of the total money supply). I can now sell that cow and give you back your $1000 and pay you back--with 3% interest--and you still won't have enough to buy a cow any more. Inflating your currency is a way of getting out of returning borrowed value. Stealing, in a word.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
What Difference Does it Make?
A friend recently expressed that she felt that studying the nature of the Kingdom of God and researching the apostolic faith was pointless and that it lead to division. After all, we all believe Jesus died for our sins and are trusting him to save us, right?
That is fundamentally true. Baptists, Catholics, Pentecostals, Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Lutherans, and many stripes of religious people will affirm that Jesus died for their sins. However, I think most within those sects will loudly protest at being lumped together. JW's don't believe Jesus was God! Catholics pray to Mary! Baptists don't embrace speaking in tongues! Pentecostals say tongues are necessary for salvation! So, apparently we do agree that a line of orthodoxy exists beyond just trusting Jesus for salvation. But can we know what is true? Is there any point to reading the Bible to find out what it really teaches when so many have done so and came to wildly different conclusions?
I believe there is. I believe that the Holy Spirit will lead us into all truth and that the coherent message of the Bible is perceivable and effective. Truth will set us free, and is the basis of our love and fellowship and hope. To close our eyes to the unfolding revelation of truth is a terrible waste. We can know what we are hoping for, and we can see it in the Bible and enjoy our heritage. The process of discovery can be a quest we engage in together, if we have the humility to listen to each other and the perseverence to work at discovering what the Word really says, even if it runs counter to our traditions. I am not talking about trying to get every tiny point right, I am talking about understanding the very basic things like who God is, why Jesus came, and what following Christ is all about. If we have a solid biblical core, the little things will tend to fall into place. If our core understanding of God is off, there will likewise be a cascade of error and pain. The Bible may have some little translation errors or pieces that aren't perfect, but the core message is intact and lights up throughout. We can know why Jesus came. We can know the way of righteousness.
That is fundamentally true. Baptists, Catholics, Pentecostals, Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Lutherans, and many stripes of religious people will affirm that Jesus died for their sins. However, I think most within those sects will loudly protest at being lumped together. JW's don't believe Jesus was God! Catholics pray to Mary! Baptists don't embrace speaking in tongues! Pentecostals say tongues are necessary for salvation! So, apparently we do agree that a line of orthodoxy exists beyond just trusting Jesus for salvation. But can we know what is true? Is there any point to reading the Bible to find out what it really teaches when so many have done so and came to wildly different conclusions?
I believe there is. I believe that the Holy Spirit will lead us into all truth and that the coherent message of the Bible is perceivable and effective. Truth will set us free, and is the basis of our love and fellowship and hope. To close our eyes to the unfolding revelation of truth is a terrible waste. We can know what we are hoping for, and we can see it in the Bible and enjoy our heritage. The process of discovery can be a quest we engage in together, if we have the humility to listen to each other and the perseverence to work at discovering what the Word really says, even if it runs counter to our traditions. I am not talking about trying to get every tiny point right, I am talking about understanding the very basic things like who God is, why Jesus came, and what following Christ is all about. If we have a solid biblical core, the little things will tend to fall into place. If our core understanding of God is off, there will likewise be a cascade of error and pain. The Bible may have some little translation errors or pieces that aren't perfect, but the core message is intact and lights up throughout. We can know why Jesus came. We can know the way of righteousness.
PreTrib Rapture
I just finished listening to John MacArthur's latest sermon, describing the dreadful events of the book of Revelation. He holds out the hope that the wrath poured on the earth is for unrepentent sinners and that believers will not suffer it--they will be removed first. And I can't argue that it is biblical to say that "God did not appoint us to suffer wrath but to receive salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ, but I wonder how he reconciles the teachings of Christ with a pre-trib rapture. Look at the scripture, for example:
Matt 13:24-30"The kingdom of heaven is like a man who sowed good seed in his field. 25 But while everyone was sleeping, his enemy came and sowed weeds among the wheat, and went away. 26 When the wheat sprouted and formed heads, then the weeds also appeared.
27 "The owner's servants came to him and said, 'Sir, didn't you sow good seed in your field? Where then did the weeds come from?'
28 "'An enemy did this,' he replied.
"The servants asked him, 'Do you want us to go and pull them up?'
29 "'No,' he answered, 'because while you are pulling the weeds, you may root up the wheat with them. 30 Let both grow together until the harvest. At that time I will tell the harvesters: First collect the weeds and tie them in bundles to be burned; then gather the wheat and bring it into my barn.'" (from New International Version)
Are the servants told to pull the wheat out first? No. First weeds get burned, then wheat comes into his barn. If the saints get sucked out of the world before the burning starts, wouldn't he have told them to bring in the wheat and then destroy the weeds?
Matt 13:24-30"The kingdom of heaven is like a man who sowed good seed in his field. 25 But while everyone was sleeping, his enemy came and sowed weeds among the wheat, and went away. 26 When the wheat sprouted and formed heads, then the weeds also appeared.
27 "The owner's servants came to him and said, 'Sir, didn't you sow good seed in your field? Where then did the weeds come from?'
28 "'An enemy did this,' he replied.
"The servants asked him, 'Do you want us to go and pull them up?'
29 "'No,' he answered, 'because while you are pulling the weeds, you may root up the wheat with them. 30 Let both grow together until the harvest. At that time I will tell the harvesters: First collect the weeds and tie them in bundles to be burned; then gather the wheat and bring it into my barn.'" (from New International Version)
Are the servants told to pull the wheat out first? No. First weeds get burned, then wheat comes into his barn. If the saints get sucked out of the world before the burning starts, wouldn't he have told them to bring in the wheat and then destroy the weeds?
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